Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
